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The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the total to 100 basis points since September, with a 97% probability of this outcome. However, the Fed may pause further cuts in early 2025 due to stagnant price indices and robust economic growth, as indicated by a 3.3% growth forecast for Q4 and rising producer prices. The Composite PMI has also reached its highest level since March 2022, suggesting persistent inflation in the services sector.
IG
The ifo Business Climate Index in Germany dropped from 85.6 to 84.7 in December, indicating a bleak outlook for 2025 as both the manufacturing and service sectors express declining confidence. The export-dependent economy faces challenges from structural changes in the automotive industry, job cuts, and demographic shifts, compounded by the energy crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine. With these ongoing issues, a swift recovery appears unlikely.
The German agricultural sector is projected to see a production value of €75.4 billion in 2024, a decline of €700 million or 1% from 2023. This drop is primarily attributed to a 2% decrease in crop production, particularly in stalk cereals and oilseeds, despite gains in protein crops and vegetables. Conversely, the livestock sector is expected to grow slightly to €36.01 billion, driven by rising milk prices amid limited raw milk availability.
Asian markets opened mixed, with the Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 gaining while the Kospi fell. Concerns over China's economic recovery persist as November retail sales rose only 3.0%, below expectations, indicating limited success of stimulus measures. The Hang Seng index has struggled to maintain its recent gains, with potential declines ahead. Attention now shifts to US retail sales data, expected to show resilience in consumer spending, as the Federal Reserve prepares for a slower pace of rate cuts.
IG
Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei and ASX gaining while the KOSPI declines. China's economic recovery shows signs of slowing, as November retail sales fell short of expectations, raising concerns about consumer confidence and demand. The Hang Seng Index is unwinding its December gains, with potential support levels being closely monitored. Economic focus shifts to upcoming US retail sales data, expected to reflect resilience in consumer spending.
IG
Stock futures are flat following the Dow's longest losing streak since 2018, dipping 60 points or 0.1%. The Dow fell for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq Composite reached a new intraday high. Traders are anticipating a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting, with concerns about potential tariffs under the new administration looming as a significant worry for 2025.
UBS views the Indian property market as a structural growth opportunity, indicating it is far from its peak. Gautam Chhaochharia highlighted strong fundamentals such as affordability and inventory-to-sales ratios, suggesting significant growth potential, particularly in mid-segment housing, despite supply constraints in affordable housing. The sector's revival is linked to increasing wealth and demand for larger homes, with current inventory levels indicating room for further expansion.
U.S. equities are expected to continue their upward trajectory, driven by strong earnings growth, a resilient economy, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, according to UBS. The firm projects the S&P 500 will reach 6,300 by June 2025 and 6,600 by December 2025, supported by a 9% earnings per share growth forecast for 2024 and 2025.The ongoing investment in artificial intelligence and robust consumer spending further bolster confidence, despite inflationary pressures. UBS notes that historically, equities have risen by an average of 18% in the year following the start of a Fed easing cycle, suggesting a favorable environment for stocks.
U.S. equities are poised for continued gains, driven by strong earnings growth, a resilient economy, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, according to UBS. The firm projects the S&P 500 to reach 6,300 by June 2025 and 6,600 by December 2025, supported by a robust labor market and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence. Despite high valuations, UBS believes they are justified by a favorable earnings outlook and historical trends following Fed easing cycles.
U.S. equities are poised for continued gains, driven by strong earnings growth, a resilient economy, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, according to UBS. The firm projects the S&P 500 to reach 6,300 by June 2025 and 6,600 by December 2025, supported by a robust labor market and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence. Despite high valuations, UBS believes the favorable earnings outlook and the Fed's easing cycle justify optimism in the stock market.

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